Describe the New Feature

tc_gen_probabilistic_algorithm_v2.pdf

Please see the attached slides to illustrate 2 main changes that are required for TC-Genesis verification. This issue describes the first of those 2 enhancements. Enhance tc_gen to verify genesis probabilities from ATCF e-deck files. NHC identifies disturbances and issues 3 probability forecasts for how likely it is that disturbance will develop into a tropical storm. The probabilities cover 3 time windows, with 48, 120, or 168 hours.

@halperin-erau has provided some sample data containing these e-deck probabilities. However, as of May 2021, their format is still under development. In the existing and historical versions of these files, both the lat,lon location and valid timestamps are absent. If any of those columns are missing from the input data, tc_gen should print a warning message and ignore that input.

This task is to enhance tc_gen to parse those e-deck probabilities and use them to populate Nx2 probabilistic contingency tables. Create 1 table for each of the time windows (48, 120, and 168) but make that a user-configurable option. Write the resulting probabilistic output.

Be sure to subset output by basin, time window, and perhaps forecaster initials. Support the application of both the development and operational logic, but note that the operational logic will be used by NHC.

Acceptance Testing

List input data types and sources.
Describe tests required for new functionality.

Time Estimate

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Issues should represent approximately 1 to 3 days of work.

Sub-Issues

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Relevant Deadlines

The project for 7790901 originally ended in August, 2021. After the no-cost extension, the updated date is February 28th, 2022.

Funding Source

7790901

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Define Related Issue(s)

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• METplus, MET, METdatadb, METviewer, METexpress, METcalcpy, METplotpy
  Recommend adding a METplus use-case to demonstrate this new functionality, assuming enough data is available to do so.

New Feature Checklist

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• Complete the issue definition above, including the Time Estimate and Funding source.
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