Describe the Enhancement

During recent improvements to tc_gen (i.e. #1448, #1447, etc...) I failed to recognize that the code changes would prevent tc_gen from creating matched pairs of forecast and observed genesis events if the forecast valid time is before the observed genesis time. For computation of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) TC metrics being able to match forecasts of early genesis (i.e. forecast genesis events that occurred prior to observed genesis events) is required. I imagine this could be useful in other NWP evaluation as well, such as if your model is biased early. Currently, if your model always forecasts genesis 6 hours early, tc_gen will create no matches and thus no hits.

I propose adding a new parameter to allow a user to add a time dimension to the already existing distance dimension for creating matched pairs of genesis. The parameter could be called genesis_match_window and would have a beg and an end. In theory, setting beg = 0 and end = 0 would produce identical results to current behavior, beg = 0 and end = >0 should also produce identical behavior, but setting beg = <0 to allow early genesis forecasts to be matched with observed genesis events would change the results (these comments are my hypotheses, we should test these conditions).

The new genesis_match_window would compliment the genesis_match_radius to allow a time and distance component to creating matched pairs. Note the dev_hit_window and dev_hit_radius will still exist to affect scoring within tc_gen.

Time Estimate

1 day

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Funding Source

2791541

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