Describe the Enhancement

Enhance Ensemble-Stat to compute probabilistic statistics on the fly for each threshold. This is needed by the NOAA/EMC global group for ensemble verification. Update the Ensemble-Stat configuration file to write output for PCT, PSTD, PRC, PRJ, and ECON line types. When climo_cdf thresholds are used, also write the mean of the stats across those bins (just like we do in Point-Stat and Grid-Stat).

Note that a related issue #1583 already adds probabilistic output to Ensemble-Stat for MET version 10.1.0. As of MET version 10.0.0, the ensemble relative frequency probabilities are computed for each categorical threshold (cat_thresh) entry listed in the ensemble (ens) dictionary. And those gridded relative frequencies (i.e. probabilities) are written to the NetCDF output file.

For this issue, we'll...

• Leave the ens logic in place as is for MET version 10.1.0. But note that the "ens" dictionary will be completely removed in MET version 11.0.0 by Remove ensemble post-processing from the Ensemble-Stat tool. #1908.
• Add support for "cat_thresh" being defined in the "fcst" dictionary. For each "cat_thresh", ensemble_stat will compute the relative frequencies on the fly, write them to the gridded NetCDF output file, and also verify them against the provided gridded or point observations. When writing the NetCDF output, make sure to NOT write the same variable name twice in case the user has requested relative frequencies for the same field in both the "ens" and "fcst" dictionaries.

This change makes Ensemble-Stat slightly more confusing in MET version 10.1.0, but it'll be simplified when we remove the "ens" dictionary entirely in MET version 11.0.0.

Time Estimate

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Issues should represent approximately 1 to 3 days of work.

Sub-Issues

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No sub-issues needed.

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Funding Source

2793541

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Define Related Issue(s)

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• METplus, MET, METdatadb, METviewer, METexpress, METcalcpy, METplotpy
• May need a METplus issue to make cat_thresh configurable in the fcst dictionary.

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