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EstimateMedianVal returns higher fee for higher confTarget #20725

@sdaftuar

Description

@sdaftuar

Running on recent master, commit f1dbf92

If I run:

test/functional/feature_fee_estimation.py --randomseed 108574360997204915

I get:

2020-12-19T20:14:06.175000Z TestFramework (INFO): Initializing test directory /tmp/bitcoin_func_test_bcwexp78
2020-12-19T20:14:07.738000Z TestFramework (INFO): This test is time consuming, please be patient
2020-12-19T20:14:07.738000Z TestFramework (INFO): Splitting inputs so we can generate tx's
2020-12-19T20:14:10.870000Z TestFramework (INFO): Finished splitting
2020-12-19T20:14:12.104000Z TestFramework (INFO): Will output estimates for 1/2/3/6/15/25 blocks
2020-12-19T20:14:12.104000Z TestFramework (INFO): Creating transactions and mining them with a block size that can't keep up
2020-12-19T20:14:15.879000Z TestFramework (INFO): Creating transactions and mining them at a block size that is just big enough
2020-12-19T20:14:21.104000Z TestFramework (ERROR): Assertion failed
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "/home/sdaftuar/ccl-bitcoin/2020-12-latest-master/test/functional/test_framework/test_framework.py", line 126, in main
    self.run_test()
  File "test/functional/feature_fee_estimation.py", line 256, in run_test
    check_estimates(self.nodes[1], self.fees_per_kb)
  File "test/functional/feature_fee_estimation.py", line 140, in check_estimates
    check_smart_estimates(node, fees_seen)
  File "test/functional/feature_fee_estimation.py", line 130, in check_smart_estimates
    % (feerate, last_feerate))
AssertionError: Estimated fee (0.000565) larger than last fee (0.000479) for lower number of confirms

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