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Bitcoin is returning higher fees for 36 block window than 2 block window (on testnet) #11800

@karelbilek

Description

@karelbilek

In testnet, right now, estimatesmartfee is returning higher estimates for 36 block window than 2 block window. The results:

estimatesmartfee 2 ->
{
  "feerate": 0.01254483,
  "blocks": 2
}

estimatesmartfee 36 ->
{
  "feerate": 0.03863968,
  "blocks": 36
}


estimaterawfee 2 ->
{
  "short": {
    "decay": 0.962,
    "scale": 1,
    "fail": {
      "startrange": 490954,
      "endrange": 1e+99,
      "withintarget": 35,
      "totalconfirmed": 35.41,
      "inmempool": 165,
      "leftmempool": 0
    },
    "errors": [
      "Insufficient data or no feerate found which meets threshold"
    ]
  },
  "medium": {
    "feerate": 0.01254483,
    "decay": 0.9952,
    "scale": 2,
    "pass": {
      "startrange": 626596,
      "endrange": 1e+99,
      "withintarget": 38,
      "totalconfirmed": 38.96,
      "inmempool": 1,
      "leftmempool": 0
    },
    "fail": {
      "startrange": 596758,
      "endrange": 626596,
      "withintarget": 15.9,
      "totalconfirmed": 50.78,
      "inmempool": 14,
      "leftmempool": 0
    }
  },
  "long": {
    "decay": 0.99931,
    "scale": 24,
    "fail": {
      "startrange": 799713,
      "endrange": 1e+99,
      "withintarget": 138.78,
      "totalconfirmed": 147.56,
      "inmempool": 1,
      "leftmempool": 0
    },
    "errors": [
      "Insufficient data or no feerate found which meets threshold"
    ]
  }
}

estimaterawfee 36 ->
{
  "medium": {
    "feerate": 0.01254483,
    "decay": 0.9952,
    "scale": 2,
    "pass": {
      "startrange": 690822,
      "endrange": 1e+99,
      "withintarget": 37.33,
      "totalconfirmed": 38.19,
      "inmempool": 1,
      "leftmempool": 0
    },
    "fail": {
      "startrange": 596758,
      "endrange": 690822,
      "withintarget": 47.22,
      "totalconfirmed": 51.99,
      "inmempool": 12,
      "leftmempool": 0
    }
  },
  "long": {
    "decay": 0.99931,
    "scale": 24,
    "fail": {
      "startrange": 799713,
      "endrange": 1e+99,
      "withintarget": 139.47,
      "totalconfirmed": 147.66,
      "inmempool": 1,
      "leftmempool": 0
    },
    "errors": [
      "Insufficient data or no feerate found which meets threshold"
    ]
  }
}

I am also attaching fee_estimates.dat

fee_estimates.dat.zip

Of course testnet is always "weird", but 36 block estimate being higher than 2 block estimate doesn't make sense, even on testnet.

The version of bitcoind is v0.15.0.0

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